Q-SEIR
A modification of the SEIR (Susceptibles-Exposed-Infectives-Removeds) compartmental model, adding a quarantine parameter Q(t) which may vary with time. This was chosen over the simpler SIR model because we have an estimate on the incubation period. Q(t) acts by limiting contacts between susceptibles and infectives. Q = 1 means no quarantine (basic SEIR) Q = 0.4 means the quarantine is 60% successful.
Age Stratification
This is a probability game which uses data of COVID patients in China (44672 patients by Feb. 11, 2020), stratified by ages. We now treat the stratification as the corresponding probabilities of people in any age group of contracting the disease. As can be expected, this will skew the Chinese distribution depending on the age distribution of the area under study, and the true distribution for the study area will be revealed as actual cases are reported.
*These methods were developed by Dr. Vena Pearl Bongolan (VPN) and first applied to modeling the Covid-19 epidemic unraveling in Quezon City by a team of researchers from UP Diliman, CFI and NCMH.
Fill-up this form so we can assist you with FluSurge, Hill Method, Q-SEIR and Age Stratification modeling in your area: Q-SEIR and Age Stratification Projection Form
Fill-up this form so we can assist you with FluSurge, Hill Method, Q-SEIR and Age Stratification modeling in your area: Q-SEIR and Age Stratification Projection Form
