FluSurge  is a spreadsheet-based model which provides hospital administrators and public health officials estimates of the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the next influenza pandemic. FluSurge estimates the number of hospitalizations and deaths of an influenza pandemic (whose length and virulence are determined by the user) and compares the number of persons hospitalized, the number of persons requiring ICU care, and the number of persons requiring ventilator support during a pandemic with existing hospital capacity. - CDC

We used FluSurge  to model  the disease burden of COVID-19 against hospital capacity in Panay + Guimaras, and Iloilo province. We also used a modified SEIR method developed by Alison Hill (Hill Method) to model Covid-19 Spread vs. Healthcare Capacity. Release from a 45-day quarantine may cause a surge in Covid-19 infections which will quickly overwhelm our healthcare capacity. Additional actions and preparations are recommended  to augment our healthcare capacity in terms of hospital beds and available healthcare workers, alongside enhanced testing, contact tracing, monitoring etc. 

FluSurge Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic

ESTIMATING THE SUFFICIENCY OF HOSPITAL RESOURCES IN ILOILO PROVINCE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Hill-SEIR: Iloilo’s Healthcare Capacity vs COVID-19

You can use both methods to project the impact of COVID-19 on hospital resources in your area. Fill-up this form so we can assist you with FluSurge, Hill Method,  Q-SEIR and Age Stratification modeling: COVIDSurge and Hill Method Projection Form

Dr. Rabajante of UPLB also made projections for Iloilo. We prepared a comparison table of all models used .

COVID-19 PROJECTIONS FOR ILOILO PROVINCE